Despite a brave performance in France last weekend against Top 14 outfit Bordeaux-Begles, the Dragons came away from the Stade Chaban-Delmas empty handed so they must gain revenge this Saturday to pip their opponents to second spot in the pool.
To finish above the French aristocrats the Dragons need to win with a bonus point, deny the visitors a losing bonus point and win by more than 8 points, which would leave the two teams locked on 16 points, but the Dragons would claim second on head to head results.
If they win with a bonus-point and by exactly eight points then the runners-up spot behind Newcastle will go to the side that scored most tries in the two matches; it was 5-3 to Bordeaux in France. If still level then Bordeaux will go through thanks to a superior points difference over the entirety of Pool One.
However, with only the top three runners up from the five pools progressing, the Dragons would still need other results to go their way....
Gloucester (21 points) and Pau (24) meet on Friday to determine the Pool Three top spot and a home-quarter-final but the losers are already guaranteed a knockout place.
That leaves the other four groups scrapping for two places.
The Dragons would first be keeping an eye on the clash between Brive (12) and Worcester (15) in France in pool 5.
A Brive bonus-point win, Worcester avoiding defeat or Worcester claiming a pair of bonuses will see them leapfrog the Dragons.
If the Top 14 side win without a bonus then it’s unlikely that their points difference (currently -27) will be enough to climb above the Dragons (currently +7 but it will have to be at least +15 to pip Bordeaux).
If Worcester get a solitary bonus to edge Brive into second then their points difference would leave them behind the Dragons.
Next the Dragons would need Sale (11), currently behind Cardiff Blues (17), to fail to win with a bonus point in Toulouse on Saturday evening or better still a Toulouse victory. The Sharks’ points difference is currently +15. Lyon are not relevant to the Dragons as they can only get to 15 points.
If one of those results fails to come in then the Dragons have one last shot – London Irish failing to win with a bonus at whipping boys Krasny Yar in the afternoon AND Stade Francais failing to beat Edinburgh in the evening kick-off.
There is still hope but the Dragons know their first and only task to be concerned about is beating Bordeaux-Begles comprehensively, then it’s over to the rest and time to cross your fingers or reach for the calculators.
Runners-up key points
- Dragons have to win with bonus point and by a better margin of victory (at least 9 points in Saturday's game) to achieve 16 points and prevent Bordeaux (16) getting a bonus point.
- Sale (11) need to win with a bonus
- Gloucester/Pau are already over 16 points and will qualify.
- Brive (12)/Worcester (15) fighting for runners-up in Pool Five
- London Irish (11, points difference+8) aiming for a five-point haul in Russia, Stade Francais (12) entertain Edinburgh and could get to 17 points with a bonus point win.
CLICK HERE to secure your tickets for Saturday's game at Rodney Parade, kick off 3pm
